溫總理2016冬季達沃斯論壇演講節(jié)選
尊敬的施瓦布主席，女士們，先生們，朋友們：
我首先在中國牛年到來的時候給大家拜年。牛年象征著勤勞、奉獻和富足，我衷心祝愿我們這個世界在牛年經(jīng)濟得以復蘇和發(fā)展，人民幸福安康。
我很高興出席世界經(jīng)濟論壇XX年會，并發(fā)表特別致辭。首先，我要感謝施瓦布主席的盛情邀請和周到安排。本屆年會意義特殊，在歷史罕見的國際金融危機之中，各國政要、企業(yè)家和專家學者聚集在這里，圍繞"重塑危機后的世界"這一主題，共同探討維護國際金融穩(wěn)定、促進世界經(jīng)濟增長的舉措，探索全球綜合治理之道，既有重要的現(xiàn)實意義，也體現(xiàn)了會議舉辦者的遠見卓識。各方面熱切期盼從這里聽到富有智慧的聲音，凝聚戰(zhàn)勝危機的力量。我們有責任向世界傳遞信心、勇氣和希望。我預祝本屆年會取得成功!
我們正在經(jīng)歷的這場國際金融危機，使世界經(jīng)濟陷入上世紀大蕭條以來最困難的境地。各國和國際社會紛紛采取積極應對措施，對提振信心、緩解危機、防止金融體系崩潰和世界經(jīng)濟深度衰退起到了重要作用。這場危機的原因是多方面的。主要是：有關經(jīng)濟體宏觀經(jīng)濟政策不當、長期低儲蓄高消費的發(fā)展模式難以為繼;金融機構片面追逐利潤而過度擴張;金融及評級機構缺乏自律，導致風險信息和資產(chǎn)定價失真;金融監(jiān)管能力與金融創(chuàng)新不匹配，金融衍生品風險不斷積聚和擴散。"吃一塹，長一智。"我們必須從中認真吸取教訓，正確處理儲蓄與消費的關系，金融創(chuàng)新與金融監(jiān)管的關系，虛擬經(jīng)濟與實體經(jīng)濟的關系，從根本上找到化解危機之策。
坦率地說，這場危機對中國經(jīng)濟也造成較大沖擊，我們正面臨嚴峻挑戰(zhàn)。主要是：外部需求明顯收縮，部分行業(yè)產(chǎn)能過剩，企業(yè)生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營困難，城鎮(zhèn)失業(yè)人員增多，經(jīng)濟增長下行的壓力明顯加大。
中國作為一個負責任的大國，在危機中采取了積極負責的態(tài)度。我們把擴大國內(nèi)有效需求特別是消費需求作為促進經(jīng)濟增長的基本立足點。及時調(diào)整宏觀經(jīng)濟政策取向，果斷實施積極的財政政策和適度寬松的貨幣政策，迅速出臺擴大國內(nèi)需求的十項措施，陸續(xù)制定和實施一系列政策，形成了系統(tǒng)完整的促進經(jīng)濟平穩(wěn)較快發(fā)展的一攬子計劃。這個計劃包括：
一是大規(guī)模增加政府支出和實施結構性減稅。中國政府推出了總額達4萬億的兩年計劃，規(guī)模相當于XX年中國gdp的16%。
主要投向保障性安居工程、農(nóng)村民生工程、鐵路交通等基礎設施、生態(tài)環(huán)保等方面的建設和地震災后恢復重建，這里既有“”規(guī)劃內(nèi)加快實施的項目，也有根據(jù)發(fā)展需要新增的項目。這個計劃經(jīng)過了科學論證，在資金保證上作了周密的安排，其中中央政府計劃投資1.18萬億元，并帶動地方和社會資金參與建設。中國政府還推出了大規(guī)模的減稅計劃，主要是全面實施增值稅轉型，出臺中小企業(yè)、房地產(chǎn)交易相關稅收優(yōu)惠政策等措施，取消和停征100項行政事業(yè)性收費，一年可減輕企業(yè)和居民負擔約5000億元。
二是大頻度降息和增加銀行體系流動性。中央銀行連續(xù)5次下調(diào)金融機構存貸款利率，其中一年期存、貸款基準利率累計分別下調(diào)1.89和2.16個百分點，大幅度減輕企業(yè)財務負擔。連續(xù)4次下調(diào)存款準備金率，大型金融機構累計下調(diào)2個百分點，中小型金融機構累計下調(diào)4個百分點，共釋放流動性約8000億元，使商業(yè)銀行可用資金大幅增加。我們還出臺一系列金融促進經(jīng)濟增長的政策措施，擴大貸款總量，優(yōu)化信貸結構，加大對“三農(nóng)”、中小企業(yè)等方面的金融支持。
三是大范圍實施產(chǎn)業(yè)調(diào)整振興規(guī)劃。我們抓住機遇全面推進產(chǎn)業(yè)結構調(diào)整和優(yōu)化升級，制定汽車、鋼鐵等重點產(chǎn)業(yè)的調(diào)整和振興規(guī)劃，既著眼于解決企業(yè)當前存在的困難，又致力于產(chǎn)業(yè)的長遠發(fā)展。采取有力措施，推進企業(yè)兼并重組，淘汰落后產(chǎn)能，發(fā)展先進生產(chǎn)力，提高產(chǎn)業(yè)集中度和資源配置效率。我們鼓勵企業(yè)技術進步和技術改造，支持企業(yè)廣泛應用新技術、新工藝、新設備、新材料，調(diào)整產(chǎn)品結構，開發(fā)適銷對路的產(chǎn)品，提高生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營水平。我們不斷完善和落實金融支持政策，健全信用擔保體系，放寬市場準入，支持中小企業(yè)發(fā)展。
四是大力度推進科技創(chuàng)新和技術改造。加快實施國家中長期科學和技術發(fā)展規(guī)劃，特別是16個重大專項，突破一批核心技術和關鍵共性技術，為中國經(jīng)濟在更高水平上實現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展提供科技支撐。推動發(fā)展高新技術產(chǎn)業(yè)群，創(chuàng)造新的社會需求，培育新的經(jīng)濟增長點。
五是大幅度提高社會保障水平。我們加快完善社會保障體系，繼續(xù)提高企業(yè)退休人員基本養(yǎng)老金，提高失業(yè)保險金和工傷保險金的標準，提高城鄉(xiāng)低保、農(nóng)村五保等保障水平，提高優(yōu)撫對象撫恤和生活補助標準。今年，中央財政用于社會保障和就業(yè)的資金投入增幅將大大高于財政收入的增幅。
我們積極推進醫(yī)藥衛(wèi)生體制改革，力爭用三年時間基本建成覆蓋全國城鄉(xiāng)的基本醫(yī)療衛(wèi)生制度，初步實現(xiàn)人人享有基本醫(yī)療衛(wèi)生服務，預計三年內(nèi)各級政府將為此投入8500億元。我們堅持優(yōu)先發(fā)展教育，正在制度國家中長期教育改革和規(guī)劃發(fā)展綱要。
今年將進一步提高農(nóng)村義務教育公用經(jīng)費標準，加大對家庭經(jīng)濟困難學生的資助，提高中小學教師待遇，繼續(xù)促進教育公平和優(yōu)化教育結構。我們實施更加積極的就業(yè)政策。特別是出臺了大學畢業(yè)生和農(nóng)民工就業(yè)的各項措施，進一步開辟公益性就業(yè)崗位，千方百計減緩金融危機對就業(yè)的影響。
總的看，這些重大政策措施，注重標本兼治、遠近結合、綜合協(xié)調(diào)、相互促進，把擴大國內(nèi)需求、調(diào)整振興產(chǎn)業(yè)、推進科技創(chuàng)新、加強社會保障結合起來，把增加投資和刺激消費結合起來，把克服當前困難和促進長遠發(fā)展結合起來，把拉動經(jīng)濟增長和改善民生結合起來，對于動員全社會力量共同應對危機，起到了關鍵性作用。
當前中國經(jīng)濟形勢總體上是好的。經(jīng)過努力，在戰(zhàn)勝兩場突如其來的特大自然災害的同時，XX年中國經(jīng)濟保持了平穩(wěn)較快發(fā)展。國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長9%，居民消費價格基本穩(wěn)定; 糧食連續(xù)5年豐收，總產(chǎn)量達到5.28億噸;城鎮(zhèn)新增就業(yè) 1113萬人，城鄉(xiāng)居民收入持續(xù)增加;金融體系穩(wěn)健運行，銀行體系流動性和信貸資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量保持在較好水平。作為一個發(fā)展中大國，中國把自己的事情辦好，有利于提振對世界經(jīng)濟增長的信心，有利于減緩國際金融危機擴散蔓延趨勢，有利于增加中國的進口和對外投資，拉動世界經(jīng)濟增長，給其他國家提供更多發(fā)展機遇和就業(yè)機會。中國經(jīng)濟保持平穩(wěn)較快發(fā)展，對維護國際金融穩(wěn)定和促進世界經(jīng)濟增長作出了重要貢獻。
professor klaus schwab, executive chairman of the world economic forum, ladies and gentlemen,
i am delighted to be here and address the world economic forum annual meeting . let me begin by thanking chairman schwab for his kind invitation and thoughtful arrangements. this annual meeting has a special significance. amidst a global financial crisis rarely seen in history, it brings together government leaders, business people, experts and scholars of different countries to jointly explore ways to maintain international financial stability, promote world economic growth and better address global issues. its theme -- "shaping the post-crisis world" is highly relevant. it reflects the vision of its organizers. people from across the world are eager to hear words of wisdom from here that will give them strength to tide over the crisis. it is thus our responsibility to send to the world a message of confidence, courage and hope. i look forward to a successful meeting.
the ongoing international financial crisis has landed the world economy in the most difficult situation since last century's great depression. in the face of the crisis, countries and the international community have taken various measures to address it. these measures have played an important role in boosting confidence, reducing the consequences of the crisis, and forestalling a meltdown of the financial system and a deep global recession. this crisis is attributable to a variety of factors and the major ones are: inappropriate macroeconomic policies of some economies and their unsustainable model of development characterized by prolonged low savings and high consumption; excessive expansion of financial institutions in a blind pursuit of profit; lack of self-discipline among financial institutions and rating agencies and the ensuing distortion of risk information and asset pricing; and the failure of financial supervision and regulation to keep up with financial innovations, which allowed the risks of financial derivatives to build and spread. as the saying goes, "a fall in the pit, a gain in your wit," we must draw lessons from this crisis and address its root causes. in other words, we must strike a balance between savings and consumption, between financial innovation and regulation, and between the financial sector and real economy.
the current crisis has inflicted a rather big impact on china's economy. we are facing severe challenges, including notably shrinking external demand, overcapacity in some sectors, difficult business conditions for enterprises, rising unemployment in urban areas and greater downward pressure on economic growth.
as a big responsible country, china has acted in an active and responsible way during this crisis. we mainly rely on expanding effective domestic demand, particularly consumer demand, to boost economic growth. we have made timely adjustment to the direction of our macroeconomic policy, swiftly adopted a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately easy monetary policy, introduced ten measures to shore up domestic demand and put in place a series of related policies. together, they make up a systematic and comprehensive package plan aimed at ensuring steady and relatively fast economic growth.
first, substantially increase government spending and implement a structural tax cut. the chinese government has rolled out a two-year program involving a total investment of rmb 4 trillion, equivalent to 16 percent of china's gdp in .
the investment will mainly go to government-subsidized housing projects, projects concerning the well-being of rural residents, railway construction and other infrastructural projects, environmental protection projects and post-earthquake recovery and reconstruction. some of them are identified as priority projects in china's 11th five-year plan for economic and social development. the rest are additional ones to meet the needs of the new situation. this two-year stimulus program has gone through scientific feasibility studies and is supported by a detailed financial arrangement. rmb 1.18 trillion will come from central government's budget, which is expected to generate funds from local governments and other sources. the chinese government has also launched a massive tax cut program which features the comprehensive transformation of the value-added tax, the adoption of preferential tax policies for small and medium-sized enterprises (smes) and real estate transactions, and the abolition or suspension of 100 items of administrative fees. it is expected to bring about a total saving of rmb 500 billion for businesses and households each year.
second, frequently cut interest rates and increase liquidity in the banking system. the central bank has cut deposit and lending rates of financial institutions five times in a row, with the one-year benchmark deposit and lending rates down by 1.89 percentage points and 2.16 percentage points respectively. thus the financial burden of companies has been greatly reduced. the required reserve ratio has been lowered four times, adding up to a total reduction of 2 percentage points for large financial institutions and 4 percentage points for small and medium-sized ones. this has released around rmb 800 billion of liquidity and substantially increased funds available to commercial banks. a series of policy measures have been adopted in the financial sector to boost economic growth, including increasing lending, optimizing the credit structure, and providing greater financial support to agriculture and the smes.
third, implement the industrial restructuring and rejuvenation program on a large scale. we are seizing the opportunity to push ahead comprehensive industrial restructuring and upgrading. to this end, plans are being drawn up for key industries such as automobile and iron and steel, which not only focus on addressing the immediate difficulties of enterprises but also look toward their long-term development. we have taken strong measures to facilitate the merger and reorganization of enterprises, phase out backward production capacity, promote advanced productive forces, and improve industry concentration and the efficiency of resource allocation. we encourage our enterprises to upgrade technologies and make technological renovation. we support them in making extensive use of new technologies, techniques, equipment and materials to restructure their product mix, develop marketable products and improve their competitiveness. our financial support policies are being improved, a sound credit guarantee system installed and market access eased for the benefit of sme development.
fourth, actively encourage innovation and upgrading in science and technology. we are speeding up the implementation of the national program for medium- and long-term scientific and technological development with a special focus on 16 key projects in order to make breakthroughs in core technologies and key generic technologies. this will provide scientific and technological support for china's sustainable economic development at a higher level. we are developing high-tech industrial clusters and creating new social demand and new economic growth areas.
fifth, substantially raise the level of social security. we have accelerated the improvement of social safety net. we will continue to increase basic pension for enterprise retirees and upgrade the standard of unemployment insurance and workers' compensation. we will raise the level of basic cost of living allowances in both urban and rural areas, welfare allowances for those rural residents without family support and the special allowances and assistance to entitled groups. this year, the central budget for social security and employment will increase at a much higher rate than the growth of the overall fiscal revenue.
we are advancing the reform of the medical and health system and working to put in place a nationwide basic medical and health system covering both urban and rural areas within three years and achieve the goal of everyone having access to basic medical and health service. it is estimated that governments at all levels will invest rmb 850 billion for this purpose. we give priority to education and are now working on the guidelines of the national program for medium- and long-term educational reform and development.
this year, we will increase public funds for compulsory education in rural areas, offer more financial support to students from poor families and improve the well-being of middle and primary school teachers so as to promote equity in education and optimize the educational structure. we are using every possible means to lessen the impact of the financial crisis on employment.
we are following a more active employment policy. in particular, we have introduced various policy measures to help college graduates and migrant workers find jobs and provided more government-funded jobs in public service. these major policy measures as a whole target both symptoms and root causes, and address both immediate and long-term concerns. they represent a holistic approach and are mutually reinforcing. they are designed to address the need to boost domestic demand, readjust and reinvigorate industries, encourage scientific innovation and strengthen social security. they are designed to stimulate consumption through increased investment, overcome the current difficulties with long-term development in mind, and promote economic growth in the interest of people's livelihood. these measures can mobilize all resources to meet the current crisis.
china's economy is in good shape on the whole. we managed to maintain steady and relatively fast economic growth in despite two unexpected massive natural disasters. our gdp grew by 9 percent. cpi was basically stable. we had a good grain harvest for the fifth consecutive year, with a total output of 528.5 million tons. eleven million and one hundred and thirty thousand new jobs were created in cities and towns. household income in both urban and rural areas continued to rise. the financial system functioned well and the banking system kept its liquidity and credit asset quality at a healthy level. when china, a large developing country, runs its affairs well, it can help restore confidence in global economic growth and curb the spread of the international financial crisis. it will also help increase china's imports and outbound investment, boost world economic growth and create more development and job opportunities for other countries. steady and fast growth of china's economy is in itself an important contribution to global financial stability and world economic growth.